I seldom feel comfortable using an indefinite pronoun , but I can say confidently thatno oneknows for sure what 2050 will be like . It ’s only 34 year away , and yet it seems like a lifetime . That being said , there are a stack of things wecansay with nigh certainty will come to pass by then . Renewable energy , for illustration , may be the energy of 2050 . Our population will grow — a lot . We might murder 9 billion . Heck , we might shoot a line veracious past 9 billion . The world will be hot . The ocean will be high . And all of this , along with millions of other thing we ca n’t maybe betoken , will affect our farms .
Feeding More Mouths With Less Land
get ’s start with 2 billion more mouths to feed — that ’s a important jump — and the fact that the nation is currentlylosing 50 acres of farmland to urban sprawlevery hour . By that math we could be out as much as 15 million acres of arable farmland by 2050 . If the current trend continues , farmers will have to read to do more with less .
Perhaps the social movement toward biointensive farming methods — currently being revived by the Farmer like Jean - Martin Fortier , Elliot Coleman and others — is good readiness for this futurity . In fact , I would hardly be surprised to see 1- and 2 - Akka farm on semi - permanent raised bed — which seem relatively new now — become 2050 ’s variation of wrangle cropping .
A Transition To Urban Farming
This jump in population may also have in mind more food for thought must come from urban sphere . Urban farms might be what many grandchildren of millennials think of as farms — on rooftops , be adrift on waterway and even in underground warehouses . Sound idealistic ? According to the FAO,70 percent of the world ’s universe will be urbanin 2050 , compare to 49 pct today . So all that sprawl will involve fresh food . Whole building will likely become agri - structures : “ Roof - to - basement ” may be the “ nozzle - to - tail ” of the mid - century .
It is also potential that more neighbourhood and — why not — perhaps whole towns will be set up around farms akin to the “ agrihood ” style we are determine now . position like Agritopia in Arizona or Serenbe alfresco of Atlanta could — and perhaps should — become models for sustainable urban development .
Fewer Farmers
Of course , not just farmland but Fannie Merritt Farmer will see a decline . Since 2007 , there ’s been almost a 4 percent cliff in farmers . If the trend holds , could we see 28 percent drop by 2050 — that ’s nearly600,000 fewer farmers ? It would be well backbreaking to develop the 70 percent more food we ’ll supposedly need with three - quarter of the farmers .
Vegetable-Centric Diets
Of course , it ’s laborious to say what will happen . People are more concerned in farming than they ’ve been in year . But not in big land . I have no doubt we ’ll have all the veg growers we need — it ’s the big grain operations where we may see the big loss . Then , it ’s the kernel manufacturer who feed metric grain who will feel the hit . Then it ’s the consumer who ca n’t open grassfed substance , of which there very well may be more of , that will feel the divergence . But perhaps this is something we and our surroundings demand . We may very well take care back on the twentieth century as the era of meat , and the 21st as the rise of the vegetable - centric diet .
nub will still exist , of course , but it will be more economical perhaps to finish it on forage , thus more expensive for the consumer . The type of meat we eat may also contract from Bos taurus and hog to goat and rabbits , which are extremely efficient and can be scaled to smaller farms and even urban sphere . Fish , however , at least on the scale we eat it today , may very well be a affair of the past especially if — as the UN warn in 2010 — the ocean of 2050 becomefishless . Well , you may fence , we do n’t rely on the oceans for all of our fish : Currently , 50 per centum add up from land - based fisheries . This is truthful , but those piscary are part of the problem . They feed fish to angle and are themselves helping wipe out our ocean .
Change Is A Comin’
That is n’t to say that this is inevitably a bleak time to come . Unsustainable land method will finally correct themselves — that ’s just nature . Hopefully , though , we wo n’t get to the fishless ocean or the 24 percentage fewer farmers . Hopefully , by 2050 , we will have compute out how to eat sustainably , farm sustainably , angle sustainably and extend Farmer a sustainable life so few will determine to leave the concern . Change is gon na make out no matter what we do , but if we start soon , with 34 years to go , we can at least work toward the kinds of alteration we want and want .
USDA/Flickr
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